A landmark analysis published by the African Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) on 27 March 2026 reveals that Africa currently captures only 2% of its viable carbon credit potential. The analysis defines “viable potential” as emission reduction or removal activities that are technically feasible, economically viable (cost below USD 50/tCO₂), and environmentally and socially sound.

The continent’s total viable potential is estimated at 2.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalents per year by 2030, distributed across: (i) Forestry and land use (1.1 Gt, including REDD+, reforestation, agroforestry), (ii) Clean cooking (0.6 Gt, from transitioning from biomass stoves to LPG, ethanol or electric), (iii) Renewable energy (0.4 Gt, from displacing diesel generators and coal in South Africa), (iv) Methane management (0.2 Gt, from landfills, livestock, coal mines), (v) Industrial energy efficiency (0.1 Gt).

Yet, in 2025, Africa issued only 48 million carbon credits – 2% of that potential. The reasons identified by ACMI include: lack of project preparation capital, limited technical capacity to meet international verification standards, weak policy frameworks in many countries, and a shortage of independent verifiers operating on the continent.

Under a “high integrity” market scenario (transparent methodologies, free prior informed consent of communities, independent auditing, and benefit sharing), ACMI estimates that Africa could generate up to USD 82 billion per year in climate finance by 2030, supporting 32 million jobs in sustainable agriculture, forestry, clean energy, and monitoring. That is about 3% of Africa’s projected GDP. The report calls for the creation of an “African Carbon Facility” to de risk early stage projects and a network of continent wide accredited verification bodies to reduce costs.

ACMI’s chair said: “Carbon markets are not a panacea, but for Africa they represent a once in a generation opportunity to finance development without repeating the carbon intensive path of industrialised countries.”