An investigative article published in Kenya’s The Standard newspaper on 16 April 2026 warns that Kenya’s ambitious projections for carbon credit revenues are at risk due to rapidly tightening international standards. The article cites data from the Kenya Carbon Markets Framework Taskforce, which had projected that the country could earn up to KES 80 billion (approx USD 620 million) annually from carbon credits by 2028. However, new “high integrity” criteria introduced by the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM), the International Civil Aviation Organization’s CORSIA, and major corporate buyers (such as the Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets) are rejecting a growing share of existing Kenyan credit methodologies.

The main issues: (i) “Additionality” – many forest conservation (REDD+) credits from Kenya are now deemed non additional because they were already protected under national law; (ii) “Permanence” – buyers demand 100 year guarantees against reversal, which is difficult for forest projects vulnerable to fires or illegal logging; (iii) “Community consent” – the Core Carbon Principles require free, prior and informed consent from all affected communities, and several Kenyan projects are facing legal challenges over land rights.

As a result, average carbon credit prices for Kenyan forestry projects have fallen from USD 12/tonne in 2024 to USD 7.20/tonne in early 2026, and some buyers have cancelled forward contracts worth KES 18 billion. The article quotes a carbon project developer: “The goalposts keep moving. What was a gold standard methodology three years ago is now considered ‘low integrity’.”

Nevertheless, the long term outlook remains positive. The Kenyan government’s National Climate Change Council estimates that if new methodologies are adopted – including improved cookstove projects (already verified at USD 15 20/tonne), grassland management, and geothermal generation – the country could still generate KES 580 billion (USD 4.5 billion) per year by 2032. The Council is fast tracking a new “Carbon Credit Quality Assurance” law to align Kenyan projects with the highest international standards.